The Incumbent’s Advantage: Why Sitting Councillors Rarely Lose in Prince George

Over the last three elections in Prince George (2014, 2018 and 2022), sitting councillors who sought re-election kept their seat 89% of the time. If you look only at the last two elections, that rises to 100%.

Whilst this doesn’t guarantee anyone their seat this October, statistically sitting councillors go into an election with a substantial head start on everyone else on the ballot.

How big is the advantage? - Some of that is down to merit, as effective councillors tend to get re-elected. But research on Canadian city elections suggests that holding the seat can, on its own, be worth up to 40 percentage points over other candidates. For example, if another candidate had a 40% chance of winning a seat, a sitting councillor could have closer to an 80% chance of keeping their seat. In Prince George, the advantage is likely towards the top of that range, and the 89% track record mentioned above certainly points that way.

Why incumbents do so well - Amongst other advantages, sitting councillors benefit from name recognition, established relationships with voters, and how little most voters know about the other candidates.

Name recognition. Over a four-year term, councillors get regular exposure through local media, council meetings and community events. Canadian research identifies name recognition as an incumbent’s biggest advantage, and in non-partisan council elections like ours, voters often go with the name they recognize.

Relationships. Councillors build connections with residents through their public service and community involvement, connections that a first-time candidate has to build from scratch during a short campaign.

Low information. Choosing up to eight councillors from a list of 18 names, with no party labels and little readily available information about most candidates, many voters understandably fall back on the names they already know.

Put all of that together and it’s easy to see why incumbents have done so well in Prince George.

Closing the information gap - Currently, the City’s candidate page lists candidates’ names with links to their nomination papers and refers people to CivicInfo BC for contact details. There’s no standardized guide introducing every candidate to voters.

Nothing appears to prevent the City from providing one, and plenty of BC municipalities already do. Burnaby gives every candidate the opportunity to submit a 150-word statement and a photo, published unedited alongside their contact details. In 2022 it also produced a printed Voter Guide with a profile for every candidate. Richmond, Victoria, Surrey, Coquitlam and North Saanich also offer some form of standardized candidate profile in 2026.

Incumbents already have name recognition and established public profiles. Giving every candidate the same space would help voters make more informed decisions and lower the barriers for lesser-known candidates, without the City favouring anyone. It’s too late for this election, but it’s worth doing next time.

The newsletter - Earlier this month, the City released the first edition of its new two-page resident newsletter, mailed out and also available on the City website.

The first page is mostly practical election information: the three ways to vote, advance voting dates, voting locations and ID requirements, along with the 2027 budget survey and the new stormwater fee. With turnout at around 25% for the last two elections, anything that encourages more people to vote is positive.

The second page is a “Major projects update”: the Aquatic Centre “on schedule… and on budget,” a $7 million federal grant for Carrie Jane Gray Park, the City exceeding its Housing Target Order goal, and kilometres of roads, sidewalks and sewer pipe renewed.

The newsletter doesn’t name any individual councillor, but whether intended or not, releasing a good-news round-up of the City’s achievements as its debut issue, landing in mailboxes a couple of weeks before a local election, raises questions. It could easily be read as the City endorsing the status quo, in effect giving a nod of approval to the incumbents and adding to an already large advantage.

Those who follow City Hall closely will know there’s often more to these stories. But many residents don’t have the time to follow council week to week, and for them, a City newsletter may be the main picture they get of how things are going.

A newsletter is a positive step. But one that stuck to neutral, practical information in the run-up to an election would avoid any appearance of favouring those already in office.

Make the voting record easy to find - Right now, checking how council voted means opening a separate voting summary for each meeting. There’s no easy way to search the record or see how an individual councillor has voted over their term. That makes it harder for voters to judge incumbents on their record, leaving them to fall back on the familiar names.

Take the Civic Core project, the City’s largest proposed investment. On September 23, council voted 5–4 to postpone a decision on the business case until after the election. Whatever you think of the project, it’s exactly the kind of vote residents might want to weigh before they head to the polls. Yet finding out how each councillor voted means knowing which meeting to look for and opening its voting summary, not something most voters are likely to do.

The same goes for February’s change to the City’s whistleblower policy, which passed 4–2 with three councillors absent whose votes could have changed the outcome.

As we mentioned in a previous article, a public council dashboard would be a big help to voters. It could show each councillor’s voting record, attendance and the motions they’ve brought forward, along with a simple list of split votes so the decisions that divided council are easy to find. Nanaimo has published each councillor’s voting record on an online dashboard since 2020. Edmonton publishes every council vote along with motion details, and Victoria launched a dashboard that lets you filter votes, including absences, by councillor.

The 2026 race - This year, five sitting councillors are seeking re-election to the eight council seats, alongside 13 other candidates. If history is any guide, there’s a very high probability we’ll see the same five councillors back around the table, plus three new faces.

New candidates will always face an uphill battle against incumbents, and no doubt most incumbents would rather be re-elected on their record than on name recognition. Standardized candidate profiles, neutral pre-election communications and an easy-to-find voting record would help make that possible, levelling the playing field a bit and making for a stronger democratic process.


Documents:

• CivicInfo BC, Prince George election results and turnout: 2014, 2018, 2022. Turnout: 2014, 19,710 ballots of 53,229 eligible (37.0%); 2018, 13,184 of 54,852 (24.0%); 2022, 15,310 of 58,289 (26.3%).
• Jack Lucas, "The Size and Sources of Municipal Incumbency Advantage in Canada," Urban Affairs Review (2021): Article. Open-access PDF
• Anderson, McGregor & Pruysers, "Incumbency and Competitiveness in City Council Elections: How Accurate Are Voter Perceptions?" Canadian Journal of Political Science (2020): Article
• City of Prince George, 2026 candidate information: Web page
• City of Burnaby, candidate profiles: 2026 profiles. 2022 Voter Guide
• Other BC candidate profiles (2026): Richmond, Victoria, Surrey, Coquitlam, North Saanich
• City of Prince George, "City Mail Newsletter – Fall 2026": PDF. Newsletters page
• City of Prince George, Voting Summary, Regular Council Meeting, Sept. 23, 2026 (Civic Core vote, item D.4): PDF
• Signed minutes, Regular Council Meeting, Feb. 23, 2026 (whistleblower policy vote, item E.3): PDF. Revised Whistleblower Policy
• City of Nanaimo, "City implementing new Council voting record" (Nov. 25, 2020): News release